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Sunday, June 21, 2009

Using The Triple Moving Average Crossover To Trade Securities

By Chris Blanchet

When trying to make a decision on whether to buy or sell a particular security, the triple moving average crossover can often provide partial guidance. As one of the most basic technical indicators, this technical indicator can provide a buy or sell recommendation based on the direction of the crossover, allowing traders to open or close positions accordingly.

What is a Moving Average A moving average draws out the average price of a specific security over a period of time. For example, a 4-day moving average will take the average security price over the past four days and draw it on the chart. Over time, this creates a trend-line. Since moving averages are based on historical data, they lag behind current stock prices. The nice thing about moving averages, however, is that short, medium and long terms can be used at the discretion of the investor or analyst, which makes them great indicators in clear-trending markets, although not so reliable in choppy, sideways markets.

What is a Triple Moving Average Crossover A triple moving average crossover is a technical indicator as to the direction of a stock price. This type of indicator is triggered when a short moving average crosses over a medium moving average, and the medium crosses over the long moving average. Typically, analysts will use the 4-day moving average for the short MA, the 9-day for the medium MA, and the 18-day for the long MA.

To illustrate further, this case would see the 4-day moving average cross over the 9-day, and the 9-day cross over the 18-day. With all three moving averages crossing, the analyst can make a recommendation on the position.

Trading the Triple Moving Average Crossover When the moving averages cross over one another in an upward fashion, then a bullish signal is generated. This would be an indication to purchase the security (long). Likewise, when the moving averages cross in a downward trend, traders are urged to sell the security (short).

When it comes to making trade decisions based on technical indicators, the triple moving average crossover should rarely be used in isolation. Other indicators that can support or refute a signal given by the triple moving average crossover are the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) and Momentum.

Reviewing multiple technical data for multiple securities can become difficult at best without the mathematical expertise and manpower needed. As such many traders rely on software that will perform such calculations for them and simply advise as to whether they should buy or sell a particular security. - 23200

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Wise Forex Investment Through Forex Education

By Bart Icles

With all the investment services being offered in the Internet today, just thinking all about will really give a big headache, and how much more if you actually got involved in any one of them in particular. Investments like stocks, securities, real estate, bonds, shares, equities, mutual funds, and commodities investments are all good ones to consider, but one of the better investment opportunities that you should be looking into is online Forex currency investing.

If you initially start out in the right direction with having a proper education and the correct Forex training to strengthen your confidence and knowledge in currency trading matters, you can literally laugh yourself all the way to bank with playing your cards right.

The Forex market is the largest and most liquid of all existing markets of today, and is one that operates in all major countries in the world. It's one of the largest sources of income, savings, and investment opportunities open to anyone thanks to the Internet. For decades it has been restricted and primarily dominated by large companies and financial institutions.

But before actually diving in head first into this huge and diverse market, you might want to consider making a bee line for the most appropriate Forex training programs that are available in the Internet. Going ahead in any business without proper knowledge of its basic operating functions is a recipe for a disaster waiting to happen. You can get all the proper training you'll ever want and need in the form of online classes and tutorials that are all free of charge.

One of the best trainings you can avail online is a Forex demo account where you get to play with "fake money" to practice with prior to doing the real deal; it will let you get a feel how it's like doing currency trading, and you can gauge your performance with the trading system you're using without actually losing your money in the process. With being properly trained in Forex trading, you'll be able to adjust to the varying changes of the market - which will be in constant states of fluctuation most of the time.

The really great thing about online Forex currency trading is that it allows you to trade whenever you wish to do so, as it operates in a 24 hour basis, and in 5 days a week you'll never run out of trades to invest in. Just keep in mind to keep learning as you go along with your day to day trading, and to keep reading all the material you can get about Forex currency trading. With a positive attitude, and self-determination, you'll go a long way in this industry. - 23200

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Profiting From High Volatility

By Chris Blanchet

For anyone who has been invested in the markets over the past two years, it should come as no surprise to discover that market volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, has risen from the range 16 to nearly 80, the highest level ever recorded.

In fact, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, volatility jumped to just 33. They closed the markets as a result of the uncertainty! Today, the markets feel subdued, yet are registering volatility in the range of 30. This presents plenty of opportunity for investors to profit.

The first thing investors need to do when it comes to taking a run at profit is to distance themselves emotionally from their investments. Trading software that provides signals on when to buy and sell can help in this regard, but this is something most individual investors are unable to accomplish. Think about it: we all work hard for our money and we hate to see it wasted. This is a benefit that money managers have -- they haven't worked hard for the money you invest, so if they lose, they lose your money, not theirs.

The second thing the investor needs to do is understand volatility. This can be done primarily by studing graphs on sites like Yahoo! Finance (type "^VIX" in the quote section) but also by realizing and appreciating the dictionary definition. Volatility is the rate of change in a price's deviation from its mean. This means that the higher the volatility, the more quickly a price will deviate from it's mean price.

Lastly, investors need is to hold back from being consumed by greed. This poses an immense challenge for most people as short-term gains often hint at larger longer-term returns. Trading system can help in this regard as well since they so effectively strip the emotion factor from any trade by focusing solely on statistical figures like volatility, momentum, relative strength and so on. Individual investors, on the other hand, focus on the potential of profit or loss.

In summary, by eliminating emotion and relying on technical trends investors can use volatility advantageously. Such volatility can allow for strong gains and returns when used properly. A trading system can assist to a large degree, but is not at all required for investors who can control their emotions and greed. - 23200

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Following Oil

By Ahmad Hassam

If you want to become a good investor in forex, then you need to learn that the currency markets evolve and change with time. As the forex markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit.

There will be periods of low returns or losses. But once you have made the changes and adjusted your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont get stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Start looking at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to them.

Oil drives the global economy. High oil prices put recessionary pressures on the global economy. Lets discuss a currency trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the global markets. There are many sources of oil. Some countries export oil. Most of the countries in the world import oil. So oil prices tend to affect almost all the currencies. Some currency pairs react more strongly. Others less so when oil prices change. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods.

Likewise when oil prices decline, they tend to continue declining for several months. Last year in 2008, we saw a major upsurge in oil prices for several months then a sudden collapse, oil prices than stabilized around $55 for quite sometimes. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are GBP and CAD. Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our oil following strategy.

United States imports more oil from Canada that any other country. The value of CAD should increase with increase in oil prices in relationship to USD. With the increase in oil prices, this means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is an example of a trend trading strategy.

If you watch CNBC daily, then you should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC watch for times when oil prices are declining and the exchange rate USD/CAD is increasing.

Use CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This tells you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but was not able to turn the trend around.

Set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips. This gives you a risk reward ratio of 1:4. This risk reward to reward ratio is very good. It allows you to be wrong a few times without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000. Usually such a trade will continue for 4-5 weeks.

Prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are usually unlikely. You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline if it does happen. You can take advantage of the oil price movement. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. Oil prices have again started to climb. Prices have reached around $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD currency pair as described above. - 23200

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Making Money with Momentum

By Chris Blanchet

Many investors will confuse a trendline with momentum. However, as an event derived from astute technical analysis, Momentum tells investors a lot more than a cursory glance at a security price's trend line. Using technical analysis and technical events like Momentum, investors are able to determine whether a price is likely to continue its trend or reverse and head the other way.

Understanding Momentum In some ways, Momentum is very similar to the MACD oscillator as it measures how much change a security's price has seen over a predetermined period of time. Understanding how technical analysis works on an unbiased, statistical level as well as using Momentum will allow investors to determine whether a systemic change in price is part of the normal up-and-down of the market, or if it is instead a strong bearish or bullish signal. Essentially, Momentum tells us whether a given price trend will continue or reverse.

More specifically, Momentum tells investors about the strength of the underlying price trend. Using this type of technical analysis allows investors to determine overbought and oversold conditions in a security and decide whether opening or closing a position is called for. Such decisions are normally impossible to make based on security prices alone.

Figuring Out Momentum When it comes to completing your own technical analysis, you may encounter difficulty or frustration with the sometimes complicated mathematical formula. Luckily with Momentum, the calculation is rather simple. To obtain a Momentum reading, you take the closing price of a security, divide it into the closing price from ten periods ago, and multiply it by 100. In other words: Close $ /(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Using Momentum To Make Trade Decisions For help deciding on a Momentum-based trade, the investor must simply determine whether the Momentum value is greater than or less than zero. For amounts higher than zero, the a bullish signal is triggered and for amounts less than zero, a bearish signal is triggered. As a caveat, investors also need to understand that progressively higher low values might suggest a continuation of an existing trend and not a reversal. In most instances, investors should only execute a trade if the price itself turns around (e.g. on a sell, don't sell based on Momentum, but sell when the price begins to fall).

As with most technical analysis, investors should never base entry or exit points solely on Momentum. In many cases, Momentum can serve as confirmation of other technical events or even underlying security fundamentals.

Despite Momentum being a fairly simple even to calculate, combining it with a dozen or more other events can become burdensome. Most investors rely on trading software to calculate buying opportunities based on technical analysis. Some trading software will even make simple buy and sell recommendations. While understanding technical analysis is important, completing the work yourself is not. - 23200

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