Following Oil
If you want to become a good investor in forex, then you need to learn that the currency markets evolve and change with time. As the forex markets evolve and change, your trading strategies should also evolve and adjust. You will need to make a little tweak here and a little tweak there sometimes in your trading strategies in order to continue making profit.
There will be periods of low returns or losses. But once you have made the changes and adjusted your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont get stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Start looking at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to them.
Oil drives the global economy. High oil prices put recessionary pressures on the global economy. Lets discuss a currency trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the global markets. There are many sources of oil. Some countries export oil. Most of the countries in the world import oil. So oil prices tend to affect almost all the currencies. Some currency pairs react more strongly. Others less so when oil prices change. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods.
Likewise when oil prices decline, they tend to continue declining for several months. Last year in 2008, we saw a major upsurge in oil prices for several months then a sudden collapse, oil prices than stabilized around $55 for quite sometimes. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are GBP and CAD. Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our oil following strategy.
United States imports more oil from Canada that any other country. The value of CAD should increase with increase in oil prices in relationship to USD. With the increase in oil prices, this means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is an example of a trend trading strategy.
If you watch CNBC daily, then you should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC watch for times when oil prices are declining and the exchange rate USD/CAD is increasing.
Use CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This tells you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but was not able to turn the trend around.
Set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips. This gives you a risk reward ratio of 1:4. This risk reward to reward ratio is very good. It allows you to be wrong a few times without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000. Usually such a trade will continue for 4-5 weeks.
Prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are usually unlikely. You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline if it does happen. You can take advantage of the oil price movement. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. Oil prices have again started to climb. Prices have reached around $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD currency pair as described above. - 23200
There will be periods of low returns or losses. But once you have made the changes and adjusted your trading strategies, you will start making profits again. Dont get stuck with only one currency pair and one trading strategy. Start looking at macroeconomic events and how different currency pairs react to them.
Oil drives the global economy. High oil prices put recessionary pressures on the global economy. Lets discuss a currency trading strategy that depends on following oil prices in the global markets. There are many sources of oil. Some countries export oil. Most of the countries in the world import oil. So oil prices tend to affect almost all the currencies. Some currency pairs react more strongly. Others less so when oil prices change. When oil prices rise, they continue to rise for several months. Fortunately for you, oil prices trend for extended periods.
Likewise when oil prices decline, they tend to continue declining for several months. Last year in 2008, we saw a major upsurge in oil prices for several months then a sudden collapse, oil prices than stabilized around $55 for quite sometimes. Some of the currencies that react strongly to oil price changes are GBP and CAD. Lets focus on USD/CAD currency pair in our oil following strategy.
United States imports more oil from Canada that any other country. The value of CAD should increase with increase in oil prices in relationship to USD. With the increase in oil prices, this means that the pair USD/CAD should start trending downward. This is an example of a trend trading strategy.
If you watch CNBC daily, then you should watch for times when the oil prices are rising and the exchange rate USD/CAD is decreasing. Similarly, on CNBC watch for times when oil prices are declining and the exchange rate USD/CAD is increasing.
Use CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to trigger your trade. Watch for the 14 period CCI to cross above 100 and then cross back below 100. This tells you that the buyers have made a temporary upward push on the currency pair USD/CAD but was not able to turn the trend around.
Set a limit order of 300 pips and a stop loss order of 75 pips. This gives you a risk reward ratio of 1:4. This risk reward to reward ratio is very good. It allows you to be wrong a few times without ruining your chances of being profitable. 300 pips mean $3000. Usually such a trade will continue for 4-5 weeks.
Prolonged downtrends in the oil prices are usually unlikely. You can also trade the USD/CAD currency pair in the opposite direction if the oil prices start to decline if it does happen. You can take advantage of the oil price movement. This trading strategy depends on just knowing which way the oil prices are moving right now. Oil prices have again started to climb. Prices have reached around $68. Take advantage of the rising oil prices by trading USD/CAD currency pair as described above. - 23200
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 3:38 AM
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