Making Money with Momentum

By Chris Blanchet

As far as momentum goes, a lot of investors confuse trendline with true momentum. In fact, Momentum as a technical tool, tells investors whether that trendline is more apt to continue or reverse. Using technical analysis and events like Momentum, investors are less likely to buy high and sell low.

Understanding Momentum In some ways, Momentum is very similar to the MACD oscillator as it measures how much change a security's price has seen over a predetermined period of time. Understanding how technical analysis works on an unbiased, statistical level as well as using Momentum will allow investors to determine whether a systemic change in price is part of the normal up-and-down of the market, or if it is instead a strong bearish or bullish signal. Essentially, Momentum tells us whether a given price trend will continue or reverse.

In other words, Momentum allows investors to see the true strength of particular price trend. When relying on multiple technical analysis tools in conjunction with Momentum, investors are better able to understand the true, underlying price trend. Armed with this information, investors can make appropriate changes to their security holdings. Making such important decisions can become difficult at best without the assistance of technical analysis tools.

Calculating Momentum One of the downfalls with technical analysis is that there is a heavy mathematical component to many of the events. While this not entirely true for Momentum, investors will need to understand the basic formula required to obtain a Momentum reading. Simply, Momentum is calculated by dividing the Closing Price by the Closing price ten periods ago, and multiplying it by 100. [Close/(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Using Momentum To Make Trade Decisions For help deciding on a Momentum-based trade, the investor must simply determine whether the Momentum value is greater than or less than zero. For amounts higher than zero, the a bullish signal is triggered and for amounts less than zero, a bearish signal is triggered. As a caveat, investors also need to understand that progressively higher low values might suggest a continuation of an existing trend and not a reversal. In most instances, investors should only execute a trade if the price itself turns around (e.g. on a sell, don't sell based on Momentum, but sell when the price begins to fall).

In fact, with most signals derived through technical analysis, investors are advised to use other signals or patterns to confirm or refute a trade opportunity. Momentum is often used to confirm other events or price trends.

As mentioned previously, many events triggered through technical analysis involve heavy mathematical calculations. For most investors who do not have the time or ability to complete their own mathematical work, trading software has evolved to the point where your computer will go so far as making simple buy and sell recommendations. Understanding technical analysis is one thing; completing the work is another. For most serious investors, trading software not only makes sense, but it improves profit. - 23200

About the Author:

Chris has more than 16 years of financial services experience. As the Fund Adviser for the MutualFundSite.org, he recommends Balanced Funds as a starting point for people who want to know Where To Invest 10,000.