Tips for Trading Rising Channels Long With CFDs
Rising channels have been very popular with traders on the short side, but not so often traded when it breaks in the upward direction. A rising channel is defined by two lines, one on the lower boundary of the price movement which slopes and one on the upper side which also slopes up at a similar angle.
Rising Channel, Surprise On The Upside
The breakout of the rising channel would be expected to be down and conventional wisdom would have you trading this pattern short. In reality 49% of the patterns break to the upside, so it is a 50/50 call on which direction the move will be. The upside breakout of rising channels can deliver positive returns with 41% of the patterns being profitable. The average return for the long trades is 0.53% in 8 days. This is a reasonable performance on the long side and is in fact better than trading this pattern short.
Refine Your Entries
When you look at the performance of a rising channel in bearish market conditions you will see the results were not as strong as they were in more bullish years. Trading a rising channel when the market is in an up trend or consolidating improves your trading results. The sector is best if it is in an up trend or a down trend, while the stock is ideally in a down trend or a consolidation. So in effect you are entering a retracement in the stock during a bullish market phase.
Tall patterns are best avoided when trading rising channels. A tall pattern is where the pattern height is more than 10% when compared to the stock price. Also avoid patterns that take more than 40 days to form. If a pattern has been formed around a large candle that marks both the top and bottom of the pattern it does not perform strongly.
Avoid rising channels where there are two consecutive closes, highs or lows at the same level prior to the breakout. These are often signs of an illiquid stock. Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock rises is greater than volume as the stock falls.
Trading Rising Channel Can Be Profitable
By following some simple rules the profitability of trading rising channels can be improved substantially. With an average return per trade of four times the base level at 2.11% in 10 days and a hit rate of 63% rising channel can be traded very successfully when the conditions are right. These filters dramatically reduce the number of trades that can be taken from over 2000 down to just under 100, so it a small subset of the rising channels that produce the best results.
Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23200
Rising Channel, Surprise On The Upside
The breakout of the rising channel would be expected to be down and conventional wisdom would have you trading this pattern short. In reality 49% of the patterns break to the upside, so it is a 50/50 call on which direction the move will be. The upside breakout of rising channels can deliver positive returns with 41% of the patterns being profitable. The average return for the long trades is 0.53% in 8 days. This is a reasonable performance on the long side and is in fact better than trading this pattern short.
Refine Your Entries
When you look at the performance of a rising channel in bearish market conditions you will see the results were not as strong as they were in more bullish years. Trading a rising channel when the market is in an up trend or consolidating improves your trading results. The sector is best if it is in an up trend or a down trend, while the stock is ideally in a down trend or a consolidation. So in effect you are entering a retracement in the stock during a bullish market phase.
Tall patterns are best avoided when trading rising channels. A tall pattern is where the pattern height is more than 10% when compared to the stock price. Also avoid patterns that take more than 40 days to form. If a pattern has been formed around a large candle that marks both the top and bottom of the pattern it does not perform strongly.
Avoid rising channels where there are two consecutive closes, highs or lows at the same level prior to the breakout. These are often signs of an illiquid stock. Ensure that the volume is supportive of the breakout, i.e. volume as the stock rises is greater than volume as the stock falls.
Trading Rising Channel Can Be Profitable
By following some simple rules the profitability of trading rising channels can be improved substantially. With an average return per trade of four times the base level at 2.11% in 10 days and a hit rate of 63% rising channel can be traded very successfully when the conditions are right. These filters dramatically reduce the number of trades that can be taken from over 2000 down to just under 100, so it a small subset of the rising channels that produce the best results.
Note: Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23200
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is the author of Supercharge Your Trading with CFDs and created the website LearnCFDs.com A Simple Timeless Method for Huge Gains
posted by X - Men @ 1:20 AM
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