Lotto, Is This The Best CFD Trading Strategy
Making of use of two critical measures of trading performance can dramatically improve your trading results. These two important measurements are the hit rate (winning %) and the risk reward.
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Lotto versus CFDs
Most people have bought lotto tickets at some point in their life, however is lotto the way to riches?
Putting at risk just $10, you stand the chance to make $10 million when playing Lotto. This is excellent odds with your wins 1 million times the size of your losses giving a risk reward of $1 million to 1. This is an exceptional number and unlikely to be repeated anywhere in the investment world.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Trading Lessons From A Rugby Game
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
If the odds were 95% then the gambler would lose only once out of 20 games so he would make $8,000 times 19, $152,000, and lose $100,000 once. His net gain is $52,000. As an investment even though the risk reward is lousy, this could be a profitable strategy if the hit rate is high enough to justify the investment.
Successful trading is about following a profitable strategy and by using a combination of the hit rate and the risk reward you can ensure the strategy provides you with an edge. - 23200
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Lotto versus CFDs
Most people have bought lotto tickets at some point in their life, however is lotto the way to riches?
Putting at risk just $10, you stand the chance to make $10 million when playing Lotto. This is excellent odds with your wins 1 million times the size of your losses giving a risk reward of $1 million to 1. This is an exceptional number and unlikely to be repeated anywhere in the investment world.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Trading Lessons From A Rugby Game
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
If the odds were 95% then the gambler would lose only once out of 20 games so he would make $8,000 times 19, $152,000, and lose $100,000 once. His net gain is $52,000. As an investment even though the risk reward is lousy, this could be a profitable strategy if the hit rate is high enough to justify the investment.
Successful trading is about following a profitable strategy and by using a combination of the hit rate and the risk reward you can ensure the strategy provides you with an edge. - 23200
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is the author of Supercharge Your Trading with CFDs and created the website LearnCFDs.com Automate Your CFD Trading So You Can Enjoy More Free Time
posted by X - Men @ 2:50 AM
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